The Mets take the 7 back to Citi and welcome the Braves for four (2024)

It seems almost impossible, given how the season began, that this meeting of the Mets (53-48) and the Braves (54-46) would have both teams just one and a half games apart in the Wild Card race. The Braves, occupying the top spot, have lost their last four games, lost their best offensive player for the season back in May and arguably their best starting pitcher in April, and have generally looked more human than the Braves have tended to look for the past 35 years or so. The Mets are a half game up in the second Wild Card spot, which represents their strongest playoff position of the year. Depending on how this weekend goes, they could be in an even better spot come Monday.

This isn’t to say the Braves look bad; while the Phillies are clearly the class of the division and the National League overall not quite keeping pacing with the American in terms of talented teams, the Braves have been good this season. They’re getting good starting pitching from some unlikely candidates, their bullpen has been excellent, and the usual suspects are doing what they do.

Also, that goddamn chop remains.

The Mets are getting a bit of matchup luck in this series on three fronts. On the only news that should elicit a smile, Austin Riley left the team yesterday to be with his wife as she gives birth to their child. He will likely be back by the end of the series, but will give the Mets at least a one or two game reprieve.

But on the injury front, both Ozzie Albies and Max Fried went down over the weekend. Albies will miss the bulk of the remaining season with a broken wrist, which happened on an attempted stolen base by Michael Siani on Sunday against the Cardinals. Fried is experiencing a forearm issue that has no timetable for a return right now, but which the pitcher feels will be brief.

Even with a ton of players on the IL and a losing streak, the Braves are still a team to be feared, and not just from past trauma. Chris Sale has seemingly discovered the fountain of youth under Truist Park, Marcel Ozuna continues to be a piece of sh*t human but a really good baseball player, and 2024 Reynaldo López has turned into 1993 Steve Avery (I originally wrote Greg Maddux, but that was overstating it, so I went with a lesser pitcher from their golden era).

It says something about the 2024 Mets that, in a weekend with uncertainty against a team that has routinely spanked them for three decades, there’s confidence. The Mets are coming off a swaggering sweep of the Yankees in the Bronx, with a 12-run shellacking last night with just about every team member of the offense contributing. And, despite not having a day off since the All-Star break, the bullpen isn’t overworked and limping into an important series.

Yes, it is a good time to be a Mets fan. Despite a frustrating series with the Marlins where the Mets should’ve won more than two games, every button pushed by Carlos Mendoza against the Yankees appeared to be the right one, and the team took advantage of a subpar opponent.

As I said before, there’s some uncertainty going into this series on a few fronts. Harrison Bader, an unlikely important contributor, is day to day with an ankle injury after rolling it on Tuesday. While Tyrone Taylor did more than adequately while filling in last night, the Mets are a worse team without Bader and a less effective one with a wasted roster spot for a non-IL’d unavailable player.

Old friend TBD is getting the start on Saturday, which is the spot in the rotation that previously belonged to Christian Scott, who is suffering a strain of his UCL and will be shut down for a few weeks. With the Mets planning on going to a six man rotation, this spot could go to José Buttó, who has been effective out of the bullpen as of late but who has more than earned a shot at the rotation in the meantime.

Starting pitching has been an area of strength for the Mets, and at on point, there was talk of possibly trading away a starter - most likely José Quintana or Luis Severino - but with Scott on the shelf and Buttó more accustomed to relieving in the past few weeks, it may not be the time to trade away a starter.

The six man rotation is necessitated, in part, due to the return of Kodai Senga, who will be making his first start of the season on Friday night. Even if Senga takes a few starts to get his groove back, he is a welcome addition to the rotation and a boon to the team when the playoff push is just starting.

With Jeff McNeil suddenly deciding to hit the ball hard, the lone member of the offense who isn’t contributing right now is Brandon Nimmo. Nimmo was on fire before the break and was topic of a lot of commentary because of his All-Star snub. Nimmo apparently believed that he wasn’t worthy and instantly stopped playing at a high level once the team went to Miami. In all seriousness, it is less than a week of subpar play, but for a player who has been as consistent as Nimmo, it is noticeable. Hopefully being back at Citi will reignite his bat.

Thursday, July 25: Luis Severino vs Chris Sale at 7:10pm on SNY

Severino (2024): 115.2 IP, 88 K, 40 BB, 12 HR, 3.58 ERA, 4.24 FIP, 92 ERA-

While Severino’s strikeouts are still down from his career norms, the adjustments he’s made are absolutely working and he’s able to still able to fan folks when he needs to. He’s only averaging 6.8 per nine innings, but in his last start in Miami, he paired seven strikeouts with just two hits and three walks for a six inning shut out performance. Now granted, this was against the Marlins, so maybe adjust the expectations a bit for the Braves series, but Severino has done a really nice job this season keeping the team in games and, based on his last performance against Atlanta (when a certain right fielder was still on the field), he looks to be able to hold his own.

Sale (2024): 110.0 IP, 140 K, 24 BB, 7 HR, 2.70 ERA, 2.22 FIP, 65 ERA-

For the first time since 2019, Sale looks likely to pitch a full season and, in the bad news for the Mets department, he’s looking pretty damn close to the Sale that was a feared member of various colored Sox teams. He’s striking out 11.45 per 9 and walking just 1.96. He’s allowing less home runs than he has in a decade and he’s out-pitching his ERA by half a run. If there’s a downside to look at, he’s already eclipsed his innings total for each of the past four seasons and, at age 35, his stamina may not be what it once was. Despite good results, Sale hasn’t gone more than six innings this month, and he has been consistently walking more folks in his last five or so starts.

Friday, July 26: Kodai Senga vs Charlie Morton at 7:10pm on SNY

Senga (2024): 0 IP, 0 K, 0 BB, 0 HR, 0 ERA, 0 FIP, 100 ERA-

The dream of the off-season is alive on Friday, with Kodai Senga making his first start of 2024. After being diagnose with a ‘moderate shoulder strain’ at the end of February, Senga’s rehab took many unexpected twists and turns to such a degree that many felt he wouldn’t pitch for the Mets this season. However, making the rounds at Brooklyn and Syracuse, Senga is finally ready to get off the schneid and make a start in Queens.

Morton (2024): 103.1 IP, 101 K, 39 BB, 11 HR, 3.92 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 95 ERA-

The now 40-year old Morton, one of the few quadragenarians currently active in baseball, has maybe slipped a tiny bit from the heights that he reached in the second half of his carer, but he’s still right there. He’s striking folks out (although at a reduced clip) and he’s limiting damage despite a little less zip on his fastball so, in other words, he’s still Charlie Morton. Which isn’t great for Mets fans, but they can take comfort in the fact that he hasn’t been going super deep into games and that he’s giving up more home runs than he historically has.

Saturday, July 27: TBD vs Spencer Schwellenbach at 4:10pm on SNY

Schwellenbach (2024): 50.2 IP, 49 K, 10 BB, 7 HR, 4.62 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 112 ERA-

With a name that sounds like the secret identity of a Golden Age DC Comics villain, rookie Schwellenbach joined the Braves rotation in late May and has been on the verge of being cromulent for Atlanta. He doesn’t walk a ton and, until his last start against the Cardinals, had not been too home run happy. However, in his last start he had both a career high in strikeouts (eight) and dingers (three). Like many young pitchers, he hasn’t really hit a stride yet this season, having a couple of good starts followed by a few clunkers, but nothing catastrophic just yet.

Sunday, July 28: David Peterson vs Reynaldo López at 1:40pm on SNY

Peterson (2024): 48.2 IP, 36 K, 23 BB, 5 HR, 3.14 ERA, 4.79 FIP, 81 ERA-

Peterson joined the Mets rotation on May 29th and has done Peterson things ever since. He’s been shockingly consistent, allowing more than two earned runs just once and fewer than two just twice, and getting dangerously close to a 1:1 strikeout/walk ratio. But he’s getting it done and you know what you’re going to get from him.

Lopez (2024): 101.2 IP, 100 K, 36 BB, 7 HR, 2.12 ERA, 3.16 FIP, 51 ERA-

How did the Braves do this? López was a middling starter with the White Sox who didn’t make the 2021 Opening Day roster. He was a good reliever for Chicago in 2022, was passed around like a bong at a fraternity party in 2023 and was again, a good reliever for three separate teams. But then he signs with the Braves, wins a rotation spot, and is having a career year at age 30.

He has had two not great starts in a row and, in general, has looked a lot more human in July than he had for most of the season, but this is the type of stuff that gets Mets fans frustrated year after year with Atlanta.